Week 11 of the college basketball season saw the final two undefeated teams in college basketball suffer their first losses of the season as Wisconsin gave Michigan its first defeat since last season’s national championship game and Duke became just the second ACC team in the last two seasons to beat Virginia.

After Saturday, there was a six-way tie atop the ACC standings and a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 as two power conference races are wide open entering the last full week of January.

Here’s how we predict the college basketball AP Top 25 poll will look for Week 12.

 

1. Tennessee (16-1): The Volunteers have won 12 straight games dating back to their neutral-court, overtime loss to Kansas. They sit alone in first place in the SEC after surviving a 71-68 scare against Alabama on Saturday.

The Vols have the second-most efficient offense in the country – one that averages 122.5 points per 100 possessions, adjusted based on their competition. For perspective, that would rank first nationally in seven seasons since the 2002 season, according to kenpom.com. It’s a similar efficiency to Villanova’s offense when the Wildcats won the 2016 national championship.

 

2. Duke (15-2): The Blue Devils have a case to be ranked No. 1 in the next AP Top 25 poll. Starting point guard Tre Jones played just six minutes before leaving the game with a shoulder injury in their home loss to Syracuse on Monday and fellow starter Cam Reddish didn’t play at all. Duke was able to regroup without Jones and beat previously undefeated Virginia 72-70 on Saturday.

Duke has a pretty favorable schedule in its next five games – at Pittsburgh, vs. Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame, vs. St. John’s, vs. Boston College – before it plays at Virginia February 9.

 

3. Virginia (16-1): The Cavaliers played the Blue Devils basket-for-basket for about 58 minutes on Saturday. Duke is the most talented team Virginia will play all season and winning in Cameron Indoor Stadium is no easy feat. Luckily for the ‘Hoos and fans of college basketball, the two schools will play three weeks after their first meeting. Virginia will likely be a slight favorite in that game given its home-court advantage.

 

4. Michigan (17-1): It’s weird to think the country’s second-to-last undefeated team finds itself in third place in its conference standings entering Week 12. A dismal offensive performance that saw Michigan score just 0.82 points per possession at Wisconsin and leading scorer Ignas Brazdeikis go scoreless proved to be the Wolverines’ pitfall but they still had a chance to win.

Michigan was projected to win for the bulk of the opening 12 minutes of the second half, according to kenpom.com, before the team’s late game execution sputtered in the Kohl Center.

 

5. Gonzaga (18-2): The Zags have had two nine-game winning streaks this season with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and North Carolina in between. Gonzaga has won every conference game by at least 13 points and it’s projected to win each of its 11 remaining regular season games, according to kenpom.com.

 

6. Michigan State (16-2): The Spartans have flown under the radar after their opening night loss to Kansas and the success of in-state rival Michigan to start the season. But Michigan State sits alone in first place in the Big Ten, setting up a big game on Monday night in East Lansing against second-place Maryland. The Spartans won 11 games in a row, most recently a six-point road win at Nebraska.

 

7. Nevada (18-1): The Wolf Pack pulled out a 72-71 win at Boise State on Tuesday thanks to Cody Martin’s game-winning 3 in the final seconds. Then Nevada beat Air Force by 15 points on Saturday. A loss to the Broncos would have fallen in Quadrant 3 and it would’ve been another damaging mark on Nevada’s resume after a loss at New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have the record of a top-10 team but kenpom.com and the NET rankings have them ranked No. 19 and No. 23, respectively.

 

8. Kentucky (14-3): The Wildcats may have had their best performance of the season on Saturday when they went to No. 14 Auburn, built a 17-point lead early in the second half, took the Tigers’ best punch and still held on for an important road win. Kentucky crashed the offensive glass hard, posted a plus-seven advantage on the boards overall and shot 40 percent from 3, even though the ‘Cats only made six shots from deep. Kentucky is trending in the right direction entering a week in which it hosts Mississippi State on Tuesday and Kansas on Saturday in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

 

9. Kansas (15-3): The Jayhawks beat Texas 80-78 at home on Monday after the Longhorns’ final three-point shot was off the mark. Then Kansas lost at West Virginia 65-64 on Saturday. Morgantown is a tough road destination but the Mountaineers are the worst team in the Big 12 with a 1-5 conference record and No. 100 NET ranking. The loss will only go down as a Quadrant 2 loss but Week 11 didn’t inspire much confidence about Kansas as the Jayhawks played down to the level of two teams in the bottom half of the conference.

 

10. Virginia Tech (15-2): The Hokies had a rough showing in Charlottesville where Virginia avenged its home loss to Virginia Tech last season with an 81-59 win on Tuesday. Virginia Tech responded with an 87-71 win over Wake Forest on Saturday. Besides the road game at Virginia, the Hokies have had a manageable schedule to open ACC play so we’ll learn more about where they stand in the conference after  road game at North Carolina on Monday and a home game against Syracuse on Saturday.

 

11. North Carolina (14-4): The Tar Heels won both of their games last week after suffering their worst home loss under Coach Roy Williams on January 12. North Carolina beat Notre Dame at home and Miami (FL) on the road – two wins over teams that are currently tied for last in the ACC – but wins are wins and the Tar Heels are in a six-way tie for first entering Monday’s home game against Virginia Tech.

 

12. Marquette (16-3): The Golden Eagles are chasing Villanova in the Big East standings. Marquette’s 79-68 win over Providence Sunday put the Eagles a half-game behind the Wildcats and the two best teams in the conference won’t meet for almost three weeks. The once defensively inept Golden Eagles now boast the Big East’s most efficient defense with an adjusted efficiency of 95.6 points allowed per 100 possessions.

 

13. Buffalo (17-1): The Bulls keep rolling as they added wins over Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan last week. They have a pair of road games this week at Northern Illinois and Kent State, and if they win, their 9.1 percent chance of going undefeated in conference play, per kenpom.com, will continue to climb.

 

14. Maryland (16-3): The Terrapins are one of the hottest teams in the country as they’re riding a seven-game winning streak heading into their huge trip to Michigan State Monday. Maryland has won at Rutgers, Minnesota and Ohio State, and defeated Nebraska, Indiana and Wisconsin at home during its win streak. Playing the Spartans in East Lansing will likely pose the Terps’ toughest road test yet. A win would move Maryland into sole possession of first place in the Big Ten.

 

15. Texas Tech (15-3): The Red Raiders sat in first place in the Big 12 entering last week but they dropped games at home against Iowa State and on the road against Baylor. Texas Tech’s defense has the best adjusted efficiency in the country but the team’s offense ranks as the second-worst in the conference, which showed last week. The Red Raiders scored 0.91 points per possession against Iowa State and 0.95 against Baylor.

 

16. Auburn (13-4): It’s still relatively early in conference play but Auburn will struggle to earn at least a share of the SEC regular season title for the second season in a row. After an 82-80 home loss to Kentucky on Saturday, the Tigers are 2-2 in conference play, which puts them in a tie for sixth place and 2.5 games behind first-place Tennessee.

 

17. Ole Miss (14-3): The Rebels split their games last week, losing at home to LSU 83-69 before beating Arkansas 84-67. Ole Miss is in a three-way tie for third in the SEC with Kentucky and South Carolina. The Rebels travel to Alabama this week fora game on Tuesday before they host Iowa State in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

 

18. NC State (15-3): The Wolfpack split its two road games last week at Wake Forest and Notre Dame. NC State fell to the Demon Deacons 71-67 on Tuesday, then bounced back to beat Notre Dame 77-73 on Saturday behind 23 points from CJ Bryce. The Wolfpack’s upcoming schedule is brutal: at Louisville, vs. Clemson, vs. Virginia, vs. Virginia Tech and at North Carolina.

 

19. Houston (18-1): The Cougars went 2-0 last week with a pair of road wins against SMU and South Florida. Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks combined for 39 points in the win over the Mustangs, while Houston had six players score between six and 13 points against the Bulls. The Cougars are only projected to lose at UCF and at Cincinnati, according to kenpom.com.

 

20. Villanova (14-4): The Wildcats won their only game since the release of the last AP Top 25 poll in an 85-75 victory over Xavier Friday. They were 15-of-34 (44.1%) from three-point range in the win as they resembled Villanova offenses of old. Villanova is the only remaining undefeated team in Big East play and it’s not projected to lose until a road game at Marquette February 9, according to kenpom.com.

 

21. Iowa (16-3): The Hawkeyes have won five straight games in the Big Ten after starting 0-3 in conference play. Their latest wins were at Penn State Wednesday and at home over Illinois Sunday. Iowa will get another shot at first-place Michigan State Thursday after it lost in East Lansing by 22 in early December.

 

22. Mississippi State (14-3): After an 0-2 week in Week 10, Mississippi State put together a 2-0 week in Week 11. The Bulldogs beat Florida by three at home Tuesday before heading to Vanderbilt, where they won 71-55 Saturday. Mississippi State got 30 and 27 points off the bench in the wins, respectively.

 

23. Louisville (13-5): The Cardinals are tied for first in the ACC alongside the likes of Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Syracuse. Last week, Louisville beat Boston College at home and Georgia Tech on the road in a game in which Louisville’s Jordan Nwora kept pace with the Yellow Jackets through the first 25 minutes. The Cardinals will host NC State and Pittsburgh this week with the chance to improve to 6-1 in the ACC.

 

24. Wisconsin (12-6): The Badgers dethroned Michigan, giving the Wolverines their first loss since the 2018 national championship game and their first regular season defeat since February 6, 2018. It was Wisconsin’s best win of the season and keeps the Badgers in the upper half of the conference standings.

Ethan Happ had 26 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the victory. Wisconsin will play at Illinois, then host Northwestern this week, which is one of the more favorable two-game schedules in the Big Ten.

 

25. Florida State (13-5): Man, things have snowballed for the Seminoles since they missed out on a chance to beat Duke at home on January 12 with Zion Williamson sidelined. Florida State has lost three straight games after road losses at Pittsburgh and Boston College. The Eagles were winless in conference play prior to Sunday and they’re one of the two worst teams in the ACC. Florida State’s latest loss puts it in a tie for last play in the conference with a 1-4 record. The Seminoles could potentially fall out of the AP Top 25 altogether.

 

Dropped from rankings: No. 20 Oklahoma, No. 25 Indiana