The five-star recruit, the ultimate symbol of success for any college coaching staff, university or passionate fan base. There are talented high school players, and then there are the five-star thoroughbreds, the crème de la crème of available candidates, and the caliber of players that programs and recruiting classes are built upon. However, the luster of landing one of these rare gems can sometimes fade even before the subsequent February’s class sets foot on campus. 

The stark reality each year is that even the highest-rated recruits can be hits-or-misses, an inexact science that’s part inebriating and part maddening. To illustrate the point, all that’s required is a revisionist’s peek at the 50 blue-chippers from four years ago to see who was a beast and who wound up being a colossal bust. Only a fraction, a little less than one-third, have gone on to consistently perform at the top of their class, which ought to somewhat curb enthusiasm for this February’s Signing Day. 

*Historical rankings from 2011 are courtesy of Scout.com 

50. WR Jaxon Shipley , Texas
Jaxon was good in his four years in Austin. But it’s not as if he was big brother Jordan good. Jaxon has been a starter since his true freshman season, and a steady all-around performer. However, his production has been modest, due in part to the poor overall play of the Longhorn quarterbacks. Shipley finished his career with 208 receptions for 2,510 yards and 11 touchdowns, including just one in each of the last two seasons.
Worth the Hype? Not quite

49. QB Kiehl Frazier, Auburn
Gus Malzahn’s quarterback of the future was never able to hack it at Auburn. After starting the first five games of 2012, Frazier was benched in October after struggling badly through the air. There was a brief move to safety in 2013 before the decision to transfer to Division II Ouachita Baptist. In his return to quarterback last fall, Frazier rushed for 702 yards and four scores, while completing 144-of-245 passes for 2,051 yards, 19 touchdowns and five picks.
Worth the Hype? Nope

48. DT Jalen Grimble, Miami
Grimble is running out of time for approaching the enormous potential that existed when he graduated from Bishop Gorman (Nev.) High School. And if he does perform at an all-league level, it’ll be in the Pac-12, not the ACC. Grimble transferred to Oregon State last year following two quiet seasons as a backup with the Hurricanes. He had a head-turning spring in Corvallis, but a knee injury limited him to just six tackles in six games in 2014.
Worth the Hype? Not yet

47. RB James Wilder Jr. , Florida State
Were there flashes in Tallahassee? Sure. But sustained excellence eluded Wilder, and he was never more than a complement to Devonta Freeman, among others. Wilder’s best season was in 2012, when he rushed for 635 yards and 11 touchdowns on 110 carries. He left the Seminoles with a year of eligibility remaining, lumbered at the Combine and went undrafted. Wilder spent 2014 on the Cincinnati Bengals practice squad, while promoting his I Am Wilder apparel line.
Worth the Hype? Not quite

46. OTBrey Cook , Arkansas
Cook was a classic five-star recruit with a three-star career. The 6-7, 314-pounder started six games as a sophomore in 2012 before becoming a full-timer and an offensive co-captain during the second-half of his Hog career. However, the ultra-steady Cook was never recognized as an All-SEC performer, and a career at the next level could require a shift inside to guard.
Worth the Hype? Not quite

45. DT Jordan Phillips , Oklahoma
Talent? No doubt. If Phillips stays healthy, he’s going to enjoy a long and productive NFL career. The Sooners, though, only got one good season out of their unexpectedly athletic 6-6, 340-pounder. Phillips earned Second Team All-Big 12 a year after missing most of 2013 to a nagging back problem. However, with two years of eligibility remaining, he’s announced he’ll be taking his game to Sundays.
Worth the Hype? Sort of

44. DE Stephon Tuitt , Notre Dame
Tuitt laid a foundation as a rookie in 2011 in South Bend before lifting off as a sophomore and a junior. He appears to be following the same blueprint with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tuitt compiled 19.5 sacks over his final two seasons with the Irish, earning All-American honors in 2012. Since leaving school early and being selected in the second round by the Steelers last May, he gradually worked his way into the starting lineup.
Worth the Hype? Yes

43. DT Desmond Jackson , Texas
Just when it looked as if Jackson was set to become a steady playmaker in the middle of the Horn line, he suffered a foot injury that ended his senior season after just three games. The silver lining is that he’ll recoup his abbreviated 2014 and return to bolster the D-line in 2015. Jackson will begin his finale with 16 career starts, topped by 11 as a sophomore in 2012.
Worth the Hype? Not yet

42. DESteve Miller , Ohio State
Miller’s Sugar Bowl pick-six in the upset of Alabama goes down in Buckeye lore, but similar plays were non-existent during a disappointing career. While he finally cracked the starting lineup as a senior, it only became possible after Noah Spence was suspended from the team for drug use. Miller wound up being a journeyman in Columbus, which was hardly the expectation when he left McKinley (OH) High School with offers from Florida to UCLA.
Worth the Hype? Nope

41. WR Sammy Watkins , Clemson
Watkins’ impact on Clemson was as sudden as one of his cuts. In his debut out of high school, he was an all-purpose wunderkind, earning All-American recognition with 83 receptions for 1,225 yards and 12 touchdowns. After slumping as a sophomore, Watkins regained his All-American form as a junior, setting the stage to be chosen No. 4 overall by the Buffalo Bills last May. The Rookie of the Year finalist caught 65 passes for 982 yards and six touchdowns as a rising star in 2014.
Worth the Hype? Yes

40. DEJermauria Rasco, LSU
Starter? Yes. Star? No. While Rasco was an important part of the Tiger D-line rotation, starting the last two seasons, the anticipated breakout season never happened. He had just four sacks in each of the last two years, yet showed the range and quickness to be an effective run defender. Provided he can make the transition to a standup outside linebacker, Rasco should have an NFL shot as a late draft pick or free agent.
Worth the Hype? Not quite

39. QBBrett Hundley, UCLA
In three years as a starter, Hundley set a bunch of school records, while sticking out as the face of the resurgence of Bruin football. The dual-threat in the Donovan McNabb mold leaves Westwood following his junior year, having thrown for 9,966 yards, rushed for 1,747 more and accounted for 106 touchdowns. Far more important than the numbers, though, Hundley was a key cog in a program that’s trending north, and just won 10 games in a season for the first time since 2005.
Worth the Hype? Yes

38. LBStephone Anthony , Clemson
From a rotational player as a rookie in 2011 to one of the nation’s top middle linebackers a year ago, Anthony steadily climbed up each rung throughout his Tiger career. The three-year starter peaked in 2014 by turning a team-high 75 tackles, 10.5 stops for loss and 2.5 sacks into a spot on the All-ACC First Team. Anthony’s intensity and run-stuffing ability from the interior of the second level will earn him a spot on an NFL team in 2015.
Worth the Hype? Yes

37. DT Lawrence Thomas , Michigan State
Finally healthy—and settled at one position—Thomas has begun to scratch at the surface of his potential. The first half of his career didn’t quite follow the script, blocking for Le’Veon Bell in 2012 and missing half of 2013 to a back injury. But Thomas played well as the starting nose tackle last fall, making 30 tackles, 4.5 stops for loss and three sacks. He has one more year to channel his inner-Jerel Worthy and make a push for All-Big Ten recognition.
Worth the Hype? Not yet

36. QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State
A shoulder injury has been the only thing to effectively stop Miller since he arrived as a ballyhooed in-state recruit. Before missing the 2014 season, which opened the door for the heroics of J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, Miller was one of the most decorated quarterback in Buckeyes history. In three years, he’d been named Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year … twice. Now, the prolific dual-threat must decide whether to remain in Columbus for his final year or transfer outside the program.
Worth the Hype? Yes

35. OTBrandon Shell , South Carolina
The Gamecocks’ massive right tackle continues to improve, but he’s yet to perform like a five-star recruit. The hope around Columbia is that Shell will hit his ceiling in 2015. While the senior-to-be hasn’t performed at an All-SEC level, he has been a fixture up front for South Carolina since 2012, starting 36 games. Shell is capable of grabbing NFL scouts’ attention with one more year of fine-tuning and development.
Worth the Hype? Sort of

34. QB Jeff Driskel , Florida
If Driskel avoids being labeled a wire-to-wire bust, he’ll do so to the benefit of Lousiana Tech, who recently signed the maligned former Gator. No matter what Driskel does in Ruston, Florida fans will forever remember a player who simply never developed as a passer in Gainesville. He started 22 games at Florida, too often plagued by turnovers and poor decisions. In three of his four seasons, Driskel threw more interceptions than touchdown passes.
Worth the Hype? Nope

33. DE Ray Drew , Georgia
Drew played a lot of football in Athens. However, he rarely played it at a five-star level. He started 18 games over the last two seasons, peaking as a junior in 2013 with eight stops for loss and six sacks. This past year, though, was a disappointingly quiet one for Drew, who managed to tally just a single sack among his 39 stops. He was a ‘tweener, not quick enough for the edge or tough enough for the interior.
Worth the Hype? Not quite

32. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins , Washington
Over the course of three seasons, Seferian-Jenkins evolved into one of the country’s premier all-around tight ends, winning the Mackey Award a year after being a finalist in 2012. At 6-6 and 260 pounds, he was too big and physical for college defenders, finishing his Husky career with 146 receptions for 1,840 yards and 21 touchdowns. A back injury limited Seferian-Jenkins to nine games, all starts, with Tampa Bay, which selected him in Round 2.
Worth the Hype? Yes

31. RB Aaron Green , Nebraska
It turns out Lincoln was merely a weigh station for Green, who’s recaptured his high school form in Fort Worth. After one season with the Huskers, he transferred to TCU to be closer to home and play in an offense that would get him space. Following a quiet start with the Frogs, Green took off last October and November to finish with a team-high 922 yards and nine touchdowns on 129 carries. He has one more year to maximize his ability as a slashing cutback runner.
Worth the Hype? Sort of

30. DT Timmy Jernigan , Florida State
Jernigan was a bit of an enigma in Tallahassee. On the one hand, he was as good as advertised, garnering All-American recognition in 2013, months before being chosen in last May’s second round by the Baltimore Ravens. However, he was a full-timer for just one season, his final one before declaring for early entry in the NFL Draft. There’s little doubt that Jernigan’s best football is ahead of him in the AFC North.
Worth the Hype? Yes

29. WR Jarvis Landry, LSU
In 2013, Landry was the perfect complement to Odell Beckham, Jr., catching 77 passes for 1,193 yards and 10 touchdowns in what would become an All-SEC finale in Baton Rouge. In 2014, Landry began carving out his own identity as a high pick of the Miami Dolphins, pulling in a team-high 84 receptions for 758 yards and five scores. He plays the position out of the slot with linebacker-toughness, boosting his popularity in South Florida.
Worth the Hype? Yes

28. RB Herschel Sims , Oklahoma State
Just one year. That’s how long the blue-chipper lasted in Stillwater before being kicked off the Cowboys for stealing $700 from the bank account of a teammate. Since the dismissal, Sims has played for two FCS programs, Lamar and most recently hometown Abilene Christian. As a member of the Wildcats in 2014, he started six games and finished second on the team with 559 yards and four touchdowns on 106 carries.
Worth the Hype? Nope

27. WR George Farmer, USC
Yeah, speed kills. But Farmer’s jets haven’t helped him outrun a 2013 knee injury or a general lack of consistency. In three seasons, he’s caught just 30 passes for 363 yards and four touchdowns. The upshot? All four of those scoring plays came last fall, and Farmer does have one more season of eligibility left. He’ll be counted on to bring senior leadership to a young receiving corps that no longer has access to NFL-bound Nelson Agholor.
Worth the Hype?Not yet

26. DE Nathan Hughes , Oklahoma
One of the poster children for the Sooners’ struggles with this class, Hughes left the program two years after arriving in Norman. Originally a defensive end, the staff felt his 6-6 frame and light feet would translate well to a pocket-protecting tackle. But the experiment failed and Hughes decided to continue his career on a different campus that would allow him to sharpen his pass rushing skills.
Worth the Hype? Nope

25. TE Ben Koyack, Notre Dame
Koyack will be the latest in a long line of NFL tight ends who did their apprenticeship in South Bend. That said, he’s not going to be mentioned in the same breath as recent Irish stars Kyle Rudolph and Tyler Eifert. Over four years, Koyack started 20 games, including 13 in 2014, and made 44 receptions for 532 yards and five touchdowns. And the Mackey Award semifinalist is coming off his best season while at Notre Dame. 
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

24. OT Bobby Hart , Florida State
While Hart was a key cog along the Seminole front wall, he was never the program’s best blocker, which ought to be a minimum standard for a five-star recruit. He finished his Seminole career with 37 starts, including a handful as a 17-year-old rookie 2011. In his final two years of eligibility, Hart was named honorable mention All-ACC as a junior and Third Team All-ACC as a senior. 
Worth the Hype? Sort of 

23. RB Savon Huggins, Rutgers
Huggins was the embodiment of a bust after becoming the most celebrated recruit to ever choose the Scarlet Knights. Injuries and the presence of the far less heralded Jawan Jamison, Paul James and Justin Goodwin prevented Huggins from ever carving out a central role within the offense. Prior to missing all of 2014 to injuries, Huggins had rushed for only 842 yards and nine touchdowns in three years. He’s been granted his release and will transfer to a yet-to-be-determined program. 
Worth the Hype? Nope 

22. WR Kasen Williams , Washington
Williams’ career might warrant an asterisk, because he hasn’t been the same player since breaking his left fibula and a bone in his foot in October of 2013. It was a horrific injury that not only derailed his junior season, but also was complicit in an uneventful finale on Montlake. Prior to going down, though, Williams was on his way to becoming one of the Pac-12 top young receivers, making 113 catches for 1,305 yards and a dozen touchdowns in two years. 
Worth the Hype? Sort of 

21. WR Trey Metoyer, Oklahoma
If it could have gone wrong for Metoyer during his Sooner career, it did. The fact that he didn’t initially qualify academically was a harbinger of things to come for a player whose best work was done during spring drills. Before leaving the program in October of 2013, Metoyer caught 19 career passes, and had more allegations of indecent exposure—three—than touchdown receptions—two. A classic case of wasted potential, he was arrested most recently in February of 2014. 
Worth the Hype? Nope

20. DE Ishaq Williams, Notre Dame
The 2014 campaign was supposed to be Williams’ time to finally begin approaching his upside. But a high-profile academic suspension dramatically changed those plans. Williams hopes to return to the program by June, provided the books are in order. At 6-5 and 270 pounds, with the requisite athleticism, there are enough raw ingredients to turn the career tide. But Williams has just one start in three years, a red flag for a player with so much natural ability. 
Worth the Hype? Not yet 

19. LB Curtis Grant , Ohio State
While it would be unfair to tag Grant as a complete bust, he never once came close to meeting the expectations that accompanied his arrival from high school in Richmond, Va. He was supposed to be a wrecking ball for the Buckeyes, but instead was more of a role player. To his credit, Grant fought through injuries and a downgraded reality to start 28 career games, including all 15 during this past season. 
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

18. OT Kiaro Holts , North Carolina
As disappointments go, Holts is sure to contend for the biggest one from this class. The Midwest’s top-rated lineman of 2011 attracted offers from as far away as Florida and USC. However, he started just three games in four years, never measuring up as more than a veteran backup off the bench. So ready is Holts for the next stage of his life that he will not use his final year of eligibility now that he’s earned his Carolina degree. 
Worth the Hype? Nope 

17. OG Christian Westerman , Auburn
Westerman is evidence that you can go home again. The Chandler, Ariz. native transferred to Arizona State after spending his first two seasons on the plains of Auburn. He sat out the 2013 season, per NCAA rules, before nabbing the starting left guard job in Tempe. Westerman played well enough in his Sun Devil debut to earn honorable mention All-Pac-12, laying the groundwork for what could be a breakout finale that attracts the attention of NFL scouts. 
Worth the Hype? Not yet 

16. RB Brandon Williams, Oklahoma
Williams lasted just one year in Norman, tugged back to Texas to be closer to his daughter. However, while a transfer to Texas A&M has been good for his family life, it hasn’t ignited his athletic career. In two seasons as an Aggie, Williams has run the ball just 131 times for 648 yards and four scores. He still has the speed and the size that attracted so many scholarship offers four years ago, but he’s quickly running out of eligibility. 
Worth the Hype? Not yet 

15. DT Delvon Simmons , Texas Tech
Simmons is getting close. He has one final year of eligibility to reach his ceiling, but it won’t take place in Lubbock. The former Red Raider, who originally signed a letter-of-intent to play for North Carolina, transferred to USC in 2013. After sitting out a season, he won a defensive tackle job and finished his Trojan debut with 44 tackles. Simmons has the agility for a big man that could result in a breakout year in 2015. 
Worth the Hype? Not yet

14. DT Viliami Moala, Cal
Moala arrived in Berkeley out of shape in 2011 in what would become a harbinger of things to come for the highly touted Sacramento product. He got in shape, but never had the impact that the Bears expected, starting just one season before mistakenly declaring for early entry into the NFL Draft. Moala went undrafted last May, signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Ravens and was never offered a contract. 
Worth the Hype? Nope 

13. DE Anthony Chickillo, Miami
Foundational player, no doubt. But Chickillo never made the crossover leap to being a dominant defensive force at Miami. A starter since his rookie season, he ended up as a quality strongside end that was better at stopping the run than rushing the passer. Chickillo raised expectations in 2011, finishing third in ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year, was more steady than spectacular over his final three seasons, finishing with 15.5 career sacks. 
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

12. LB Steve Edmond, Texas
Edmond was a solid all-around performer for the Horns, though he never elevated above honorable mention All-Big 12, which he achieved in each of his final two seasons in Austin. He earned four letters in four seasons, while starting in the middle since 2012. Edmond peaked this past fall, making 131 tackles, 13 stops for loss and 5.5 sacks in his first year working with new head coach Charlie Strong. 
Worth the Hype? Sort of 

11. OT La’el Collins, LSU
Collins was a rarity in Baton Rouge, the star Tiger who stayed with the program for all four seasons. The stalwart pass protector went from a Freshman All-American in 2011 to a Second Team All-American in 2014, racking up accolades, knockdown blocks and 38 career starts. Collins was awarded the Jacobs Blocking Trophy, given to the SEC’s top lineman, this past fall, a fitting for a veteran who could be selected in the opening round of April’s NFL Draft. 
Worth the Hype? Yes 

10. DE Aaron Lynch , Notre Dame
For Irish fans, it turns out, Lynch was a 6-5, 270-pound tease. In 2011, he whet the appetite of Golden Domers by notching 5.5 sacks and 14 hurries, en route to a spot on the Freshman All-American Team. But just a few months after his debut ended, he left South Bend to play closer to his Cape Coral (Fla.) home. After spending one relatively quiet year at South Florida, Lynch left the Bulls and was drafted in the fifth round by the San Francisco 49ers. He actually played well for the Niners, leading the team with six sacks. 
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

9. RB Malcolm Brown, Texas
Four years. Not a single 1,000-yard season. Yeah, no one expected this level of production from one of the country’s highest ranked running backs. Brown was hampered by injuries in the first half of his career and competition from Johnathan Gray in the second half. Plus, it didn’t help that the Longhorns often struggled at the line of scrimmage and in the passing game. Averaging just 157 carries a year in Austin could benefit Brown as he looks to continue his career on Sundays. 
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

8. S Karlos Williams , Florida State
A number of blue-chippers change campuses. Few, however, change sides of the ball. Williams was an exception. After serving as a backup safety in his first two seasons, the Seminoles chose to move one of their best athletes to offense to bolster running back depth. It worked, too, as Williams ran for 730 yards and 11 touchdowns on only 91 carries. However, with expectations soaring in 2014, his production slipped, opening the door for true freshman Dalvin Cook to become the front man of the ground game. 
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

7. S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix , Alabama
Three and out. Clinton-Dix’s career path took him from rookie letterwinner to sophomore starter to All-American in his Crimson Tide finale in 2013. He was one of the nation’s top safeties as a junior, which wasn’t lost on the Green Bay Packers, who plucked him out of last May’s opening round. Clinton-Dix has fulfilled expectations in his pro debut, racking up 94 regular season tackles, including 66 solos, as a 10-game starter. 
Worth the Hype? Yes 

6. LB Trey DePriest, Alabama 
While DePriest never made the same headlines as some of his predecessors in Tuscaloosa, he still had a solid career with the Tide. The rock in the middle started 39 games, finishing with 237 tackles, including a career-high 88 as a senior. DePriest followed up a Second Team All-SEC junior year by being named First team All-American by the AFCA and First Team All-SEC by the league coaches in 2014. He’s a terrific leader, though a lack of ideal range will hinder his pro outlook. 
Worth the Hype? Yes 

5. RB Isaiah Crowell, Georgia
Crowell was all set to become the next big thing at running back in Athens following an SEC Freshman of the Year debut. But then he ran afoul of the law, was shown the door by Mark Richt and eventually landed at FCS Alabama State. To his credit, Crowell regrouped and played well enough to remain on the radar of pro scouts. And despite going undrafted last year, he finished second on the Cleveland Browns with 607 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

4. DT Anthony Johnson, LSU
Johnson was dubbed the ‘freak’ coming out of high school for his rare combination of strength and quickness, but there was nothing especially freaky about his three years in Baton Rouge. He started 16 games for the Tigers and earned Second Team All-SEC in 2013 before declaring for early entry into the NFL Draft. Johnson was not selected last spring, settling in with the Miami Dolphins as a priority free agent. He played in seven games before injuring his ankle. 
Worth the Hype? Not quite 

3. RB De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon
Thomas was arguably the most electrifying player of his class, playing as if he was channeling a modern-day Rocket Ismail. A lethal all-purpose weapon, with world-class speed, he epitomized the Ducks’ big-play, quick-strike attack. In his three years in Eugene, Thomas scored 46 touchdowns, 26 on runs, 15 on receptions and five on special teams. The fourth-round draft choice is attempting to relive his college days as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. 
Worth the Hype? Yes 

2. OT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama
Was Kouandjio the second best player of the 2011 class? No. But he was a two-year starter for the Crimson Tide, earning All-SEC First Team in 2013, and convinced the Buffalo Bills to take him with their second pick. While Kouandjio has started slowly with the Bills, he cracked the rotation late in the year, and hopes to continue that momentum next season. He’s still a bit of a project, but the foundation is strong enough to remain hopeful about the future. 
Worth the Hype? Yes 

1. DE Jadeveon Clowney , South Carolina
Clowney had somewhat of an enigmatic superhero quality to him during his three years with the Gamecocks. While there was little doubt he was the most dominant individual of this class, it didn’t always show, especially in his 2013 amateur finale. Still, Clowney was a wrecking ball when he was on, peaking with 23.5 stops for loss and 13 sacks during an All-American sophomore season. The future is a little uncertain for the top overall draft pick of 2014 after missing most of a rookie year that ended with a risky microfracture knee surgery. 
Worth the Hype? Yes