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It’s March. We can see the finish line to the regular season. Soon, the excitement and mayhem of conference tournaments will begin and the focus on the bubble teams will increase. As in other years, the bubble has a wide range of teams and resumes. It is truly what makes the bubble such an interesting topic of discussion that brings with it a wide array of opinions.

The mid-majors are well-represented on the bubble this season. From Utah State, who is on the right side of the bubble, to UNC-Greensboro, Furman and St. Mary’s who are just outside of the field, the mid-majors are the most difficult to handicap. Yes, they have a lot of wins. But quality wins are always absent on their resumes – and this year is no different.

Utah State has a huge opportunity Saturday when they face Nevada. A win would mean they would all but clinch an at-large bid. The Aggies are currently in for several reasons. First, they have a strong NET ranking at 33, which may be their strongest selling point. They also played the 20th toughest non-conference schedule in the country, which is always something the committee has looked at when evaluating mid-majors. And while lacking many quality wins (#39 St Mary’s being their best win), they have only one bad loss to #88 Fresno State at home. And really, losing to any team ranked in the top 100 can never really be considered a bad loss – especially for a bubble team. As we have said many times, bubble teams are there because they have either lost too much (likely power conference teams), or because they haven’t had quality wins (generally mid-majors).

With the mid-major tournaments beginning next week, time is running out for teams like Furman, St Mary’s, UNC-Greensboro and San Francisco. Sure, they can win their conference tournament and clinch a spot in the dance. But to get an at-large, it would really mean a run to the finals and even then it may not be enough. The one exception is St Mary’s, who has a huge game with Gonzaga this weekend. Because of their strong NET ranking (39), the Gaels could be under serious consideration for one of the last spots in the field with a win.

Let’s take a look at the power conference teams who are vying for the last spots in the field. Most of these teams have accumulated double-digit losses and also have very poor road records. Their path to the tourney is simple: win, and if the opportunity is there, win on the road. Alabama, Minnesota and Texas fall into this category. Texas is a very curious case: They have three top 25 wins, a strong SOS and a good NET ranking (37). The problem is that the Longhorns have 13 losses with two of them being Q3 losses. They really can’t absorb many more missteps and remain in the field.

The rest of the bubble is filled by high mid-majors, Temple and UCF, and power conference teams like Arizona State and TCU. These teams all have single-digit losses and lack enough quality wins to feel comfortable. Temple and UCF have chances in the AAC tourney to knock off Houston, which would be a high-quality win. Same for TCU. But Arizona State has no real quality win opportunities. The Sun Devils need to win out until the conference tourney final and hope that the accumulation of wins is enough.

Follow me on twitter @tkbrackets. I will give you updates all weekend long as we head to the end of the conference season.

A note about the automatic bids: In each conference, the team currently leading the league standings was given the automatic bid. Ties were broken using NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool), giving the auto bid to the team with the highest NET ranking.

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LAST FOUR IN

Seton Hall, Alabama, Utah State, Arizona State

FIRST FOUR OUT

Clemson, UNC-Greensboro, St. Mary’s, Furman

NEXT FOUR OUT

Xavier, Butler, Dayton, Georgetown

 

CONFERENCES WITH MULTIPLE BIDS

Big Ten (8)

ACC (8)

Big 12 (8)

SEC (8)

Big East (4)

AAC (4)

Pac-12 (2)

Mountain West (2)

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