Toledo vs. Ball State Prediction, Game Preview

Toledo vs. Ball State prediction and game preview. The Rockets battle the Cardinals in Wednesday night MAC action.

Toledo vs. Ball State Game Preview

When: Wednesday, Nov. 16 – 7 p.m. ET
Where: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio.
TV Broadcast: ESPN2

Toledo’s loss to Ohio on Oct. 27 certainly wasn’t ideal, but it still has a chance to play in the MAC title game. A win over Ball State would mean the Nov. 25 matchup at No. 14 Western Michigan would be for the division championship. The Rockets have won back-to-back games since falling to the Bobcats, including last Wednesday’s 31-24 win over Northern Illinois in a game played at the Chicago White Sox’s ball park.

Ball State’s hope of pulling off the upset hinge on its consistency. The Cardinals led Eastern Michigan 21-0 in the first quarter last week, then fell apart in the second half and lost, 48-41. They’ve lost three straight and sit at the bottom of the MAC West.

What To Know About Toledo

Logan Woodside continued his tear against NIU, completing 23 of 33 passes and throwing three touchdowns. His 37 TD throws lead the nation, and his 189.25 passer rating is second. He’s also completed 70.8 percent of his passes and is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, marks that rank third in the country.

Kareem Hunt added a big night rushing against the Huskies with 122 yards and a touchdown, but Toledo’s MAC-leading offense was outgained 441-420. Still, the Rockets’ average of 7.14 yards per play ranks eighth in the nation.

What To Know About Ball State

Ball State’s meltdown last week against Eastern Michigan had a lot to do with its season-high five turnovers. Riley Neal threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles before running for a go-ahead touchdown with 1:35 remaining. But the Eagles marched 86 yards in just over a minute, scoring the winning TD with 32 seconds left and sending the Cardinals to a third straight defeat. James Gilbert, the MAC’s leading rusher, was held to 54 yards on 12 carries.

Ball State’s defense ranks 10th in the MAC after allowing 622 yards against EMU. It has given up at least 500 in each game during its losing streak.


Offense: Toledo – Woodside and Hunt lead one of the nation’s most efficient units.

Defense: Even – The Rockets have forced the fewest turnovers in the MAC with nine, giving them a minus-1 turnover margin.

Special Teams: Toledo – Van Edwards Jr. is one of the MAC’s best kick returners.

Coaching: Toledo – Jason Candle is having a lot of success in his first season as head coach.

Intangibles: Toledo – The Rockets have won back-to-back meetings.

Matchup To Watch

Gilbert vs. Toledo’s run defense

Toledo is allowing 160.6 rushing yards per game, but it has had success against Gilbert. The Rockets won last year’s meeting, 24-10, while holding Gilbert to 29 yards on the ground. The Cardinals will be in for a long night if Gilbert can’t get going.

Betting Odds

Spread: Toledo -20.5
Over/Under: No Line as of post

Toledo vs. Ball State Prediction

Gilbert gets back on track with 120 yards and a touchdown, but Woodside’s four TD passes prove to be too much as Toledo wins easily.

Toledo vs. Ball State final score prediction: Toledo 49, Ball State 21

MORE: 1-128 College Football Rankings – Week 12