UCF vs. ECU Prediction, Game Preview


UCF vs. ECU prediction and game preview. Projecting who wins the matchup between the Knights and Pirates.


UCF vs. ECU Game Preview

When: Saturday, October 1 – 12:00 p.m. ET
Where: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, North Carolina
TV Broadcast: CBSSN

 

UCF got back on the winning track last week by pummeling FIU, 53-14. Sitting at 2-2 on the season, the Knights have played pretty much as expected. They stomped a mud hole in South Carolina State in Week 1, 38-0 and whooped up on the aforementioned Panthers. In between, they lost a road contest to Michigan and then at home to Michigan-lite, Maryland. Ultimately, this is a team that wins the games it’s supposed to, and loses the ones it’s not expected to have a chance in. Considering the Knights went o-fer last year, that’s quite a feat by first-year head coach Scott Frost.

ECU is pretty much in the same boat. The Pirates rolled through the state of North Carolina in the season’s first two weeks, taking down WCU and NC State. One bad quarter against South Carolina cost them victory against a feckless Gamecocks club, before then getting demolished in Week 4 by a better-than-expected Virginia Tech team. Win at home, lose on the road, come out of the first month at 2-2: if you told that scenario to Pirates fans prior to the season, they’d surely be happy.

What To Know About UCF

UCF ranks right around the middle of the pack nationally in total offense, with 437.3 yards per game. However, a balanced offense it is not. The Knights run the ball at around a 2-to-1 clip versus passing. UCF is No. 5 in the nation with 54.5 rushes per game, and No. 26 nationally with 235.75 yards per game.

On defense, the Knights give up a little more than 23 points per game, and are a top-20 club in yards allowed per game, 308.

What to Know About ECU

Flip the script for ECU. The Pirates love airing the ball out, throwing for 368 yards per game – No. 12 nationally. Meanwhile, they’re relatively middle of the pack in the ground game. The Pirates are peel off 523.8 yards per game, but score just under 30 points per contest.

When it comes to scoring and total defense, they rank in the middle of the field on both. Ultimately, turnovers have felled the Pirates, as they have fourth-worst turnover margin in all the land, -1.5

Advantages

Offense: ECU. UCF runs as effectively as ECU passes the ball, though the Pirates have a little better time of possession.

Defense: UCF. The Knights have one of the best passing defenses in the game, which should neutralize ECU’s aerial attack.

Special Teams: UCF. Barely. ECU is 7-for-11 in field goal kicking. In what figures to be a close game, an inconsistent leg could be the difference.

Coaching: Tie. Scott Frost and Scottie Montgomery are two offensive-minded, first-time head coaches.

Intangibles: ECU. The Pirates haven’t lost at home all year.

Matchup To Watch

UCF rushing attack vs. ECU passing attack

Essentially: Who does it better? Frost likes to utilize the run, but it’s not a power game like you’d find at, say, Wisconsin. He’s installed the Oregon spread which caters more to tempo than ball control. ECU whips the ball around, but can be sloppy with it.

UCF vs. ECU Betting Odds

Spread: ECU -3.5
Over/Under: 61

UCF vs. ECU Prediction

This has the makings of a close game – a far cry from the curb stomping ECU handed UCF last year. Look for a late turnover or missed field goal to ice it. ECU ultimately bounces back from last week’s drubbing from Virginia Tech to move to 3-2 on the year.

UCF vs. ECU Score Prediction: ECU 31, UCF 28

MORE: 1-128 College Football Rankings – Week 5