Oklahoma State (5-5) at Baylor (8-1) Nov. 22, 7:30, FOX 

Here’s The Deal: Baylor is trying. Still seventh in the CFP rankings, and still behind TCU and far out of the top four, it has to keep on pushing and keep on piling up style points. Blowing away Kansas is one thing, but going into Oklahoma and coming away with a 48-14 victory is something completely different. With wins over TCU and OU, the Bears have more wins over top 25 teams than Alabama or Mississippi State do, and the victory over the Horned Frogs is far, far better – at least technically – than anything Florida State has done so far, but it’s still a fight. All they can do is blow up on Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State and hope for the best. 

Oklahoma State’s season has fallen into the abyss, losing four straight after getting out to a 5-1 start, and now the hope for simply going to a bowl game is all but gone needing to win on the road at Baylor or Oklahoma just to get a 13th game. Is Mike Gundy going to Florida? Is the program in transition? What’s happening with this ugly losing streak with blowout loss after blowout loss, losing the four games by a combined score of 153 to 40. This could be the first losing season since 2005, but if the Cowboys can come up with one big spoiler win, all of a sudden, the season changes. 

Why Oklahoma State Might Win: The pass defense might be a disaster, but the defensive front has done a decent job allowing more than 200 yards just twice and allowing fewer than four yards per carry. Baylor blows game up with its passing game, but it controls things from the start with the ground game, establishing the tone early and cranking out big gain after big gain to balance out the attack. Oklahoma State has the defensive front to get behind the line and be disruptive, and it has to turn the dogs loose. The D has to take several chances and has to camp out in the backfield on a regular basis. 

Why Baylor Might Win: The Oklahoma State offense has been really, really bad. The passing game is coming up with a few yards here and there, but it’s not going anywhere and has just two touchdown passes in the last four games and hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdown passes in the last six. Meanwhile, the running game has been a disaster partially due to problems on the offensive front that’s struggling against the more aggressive defensive fronts. Baylor should be able to turn its line loose and screw up the OSU offense before it can get started. 

Who To Watch Out For: Very, very quietly, Bryce Petty is having yet another fantastic season. Out of the three interceptions thrown this year, two came against TCU and he’s putting up big numbers once again. He might not be putting up ungodly stats, but with 21 touchdown passes to go along with the three picks, he’s doing a great job of leading the high-powered attack. Last year he rocked Oklahoma State for 359 yards and three touchdowns, and he doesn’t have to necessarily do that this time around – he just has to make sure he doesn’t throw any big picks. 

What’s Going To Happen: Baylor will put this away after the first quarter. Oklahoma State just doesn’t have the offensive pop to keep up the pace against an underappreciated Baylor defense that allowed 14 points in back-to-back weeks. 

Prediction: Baylor 45 … Oklahoma State 17 
Line: Baylor -28 o/u: 67.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 2.5