Texas Tech (3-7) at Iowa State (2-7) Nov. 22, 3:30, FOX Sports Networks 

Here’s The Deal: Iowa State can all but cement a spot as the Big 12’s One True Last Place Finisher with a loss in a troubled year, while Texas Tech desperately needs to find something positive in a lost year. The Red Raider defense has been a total disaster, and the offense hasn’t been able to pick up the slack losing three straight games and seven of the last eight, with a home win over Kansas the only oasis. 

Iowa State suffered the indignity of getting blown out by Kansas 34-14 two weeks ago, and while it’s had a few nice moments this year – beating Iowa and pushing Texas and Kansas State – the wheels have come off over the last few weeks thanks to a defense that can’t seem to come up with a key stop and an offense that started to sputter with just 28 points since the shootout loss to Texas. With West Virginia and TCU to close, it won’t be easy, but there’s still time to pull up out of the nosedive and finish strong. It has to all start by getting by the struggling Red Raiders. 

Why Texas Tech Might Win: Texas Tech’s passing game makes sure to get the ball out of the quarterbacks’ hand in a hurry, but it’s still vital to generate pressure into the Red Raider backfield – Iowa State can’t do that. The Cyclones have a mere 12 sacks on the year and just two in the last five games. Things were working okay over the first half of the year, but the pressure just hasn’t been there. The ISU secondary hasn’t been totally gouged, but it hasn’t been a positive. 

Why Iowa State Might Win: Texas Tech can’t stop the run. At all. Not even close. The Red Raiders allowed 305 rushing yards to TCU and 384 to Oklahoma while allowing 11 rushing touchdowns over the last three games. Iowa State might not have a ground attack, but it has to at least try – this is the game to try getting the backs into a lather and hoping for the best. What the Cyclones can do is move the chains, doing a nice job on third downs, and they have to keep control of the clock to force the Texas Tech offense to the sidelines. 

Who To Watch Out For: Iowa State quarterback Sam Richardson is expected to be back after missing time against Kansas with a shoulder injury, but the focus will be on Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes, who got the call against Oklahoma and did a decent job, completing 54% of his throws for 393 yards and four touchdowns. Just a freshman, he’s getting his feet wet, and it’s not his fault the defense couldn’t stop the OU ground game, but he’s a talent who’ll spend the last few games growing into the job unless Davis Webb emerges again after suffering an ankle injury.

What’s Going To Happen: Iowa State is way overdue to rise up and come up with a big home performance. Texas Tech will get its passing yards, but the Cyclones will rip through the porous Red Raider defense and provide a bright spot to an otherwise miserable season. 

Prediction: Iowa State 38 … Texas Tech 30 
Line: Iowa State -1 o/u: 69 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 2