Wisconsin (8-2) at Iowa (7-3) Nov. 22, 3:30, ESPN2 

Here’s The Deal: Wisconsin can wrap up the Big Ten West with a win over Iowa and a Minnesota loss to Nebraska, but after destroying the Huskers last week in the biggest win of the Gary Andersen era, there’s a chance to shoot for even bigger. It would have to take a lot of help – a LOT of help – but UW has become the hot team of the moment, getting enough respect to move up to 16th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and with the potential to win the Big Ten title and maybe … okay, it’s not going to happen. The Badgers’ loss to Northwestern ended any outside dreams of a playoff shot, but with a win over Iowa this week, Minnesota next week, and – almost certainly – Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, they can get a big bowl spot and get just on the outside of the playoff door. 

Can Iowa ruin the party? The Hawkeyes not only can play the spoiler role, but they still have an honest shot at winning the West, needing to beat the Badgers this week and Nebraska to finish, and hoping for a Minnesota loss in either of its last two games. They haven’t been consistent, getting obliterated by Minnesota 51-14 a week after destroying 48-7, and now it’s time to come up with a signature win. With the Huskers coming to Iowa City next week, and the Gophers having to go to Madison and Lincoln, if Iowa can pull this off, all of a sudden, the Big Ten championship narrative changes in a huge way. 

Why Wisconsin Might Win: It’s this simple when it comes to beating Wisconsin – can you slow down the run? The answer for Iowa is – sort of. It’s great against the teams that can’t really run the ball – like Illinois and Northwestern – but Minnesota ran without any sort of a problem, and Indiana and Tevin Coleman were able to rumble at will over a stretch where the Hawkeyes allowed 200 yards or more and three scores three times in a four game run. Iowa has a solid linebacking corps, and the D is active and aggressive, but if the Badger O line gets into a lather early like it did against Nebraska, there will be problems. 

Why Iowa Might Win: Iowa’s defensive front is fantastic at getting behind the line, with Drew Ott, Louis Trinca-Pasat and Carl Davis combining for 26.5 tackles for loss from the defensive front, and Ott and Trinca-Pasat combining for 14 sacks, it’s an active D. To have any hope of stopping the Badgers, a defense has to get at Melvin Gordon and the Badger backs before they have time to find a hole and rip through it. Get any pressure on the Wisconsin quarterbacks in any way and the passing game goes into the tank. 

Who To Watch Out For: The Heisman spotlight is now squarely on Melvin Gordon after his record-setting 408-yard day, but he had his worst day of 2013 against Iowa, running for just 62 yards with no scores on 17 carries in the 28-9 win. Iowa’s Mark Weisman is hardly in the same stratosphere as Gordon, but he came up with his first 100-yard game of the season last week against Illinois, tearing off 23 carries for 134 yards. He didn’t score, but he’s able to pound away for four yards per crack and has to try controlling the game from the start. Wisconsin is brilliant at taking over games, holding on to the ball for around 34 minutes per game, and Iowa has to disrupt that. 

What’s Going To Happen: Iowa will rise up and give Wisconsin a whole slew of problems, loading up to slow down Gordon and keep him from running wild, but the underappreciated Badger D will take over. Iowa’s offense will sputter and cough, leaving the door open for Wisconsin to come through with an ugly win. 

Prediction: Wisconsin 31 … Iowa 17 
Line: Wisconsin -9.5 o/u: 51.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 3