Week 5 Big 12 Predictions And Previews

TCU (2-0) at SMU (0-3) Sept. 27, 12:00, CBS Sports Network 

Here’s The Deal: Former Southwest Conference rivals TCU and SMU meet in Dallas for the 94th revival of the Battle for the Iron Skillet. No one knows too much about this year’s Horned Frogs, which have only played twice, handling Samford and Minnesota. They’ve got this test across town before next week’s visit from Oklahoma that’ll provide an indication of how high the ceiling in Fort Worth might be in 2014. The Mustangs haven’t left the skillet since the season began. They’ve been outscored 146-12, with the most recent pounding coming in Tom Mason’s debut as interim coach. 
Why TCU Might Win: SMU is complete disarray. TCU, on the other hand, is focused and well-rested following last week’s bye. The Mustangs are averaging three yards per play, one yard a carry, and have scored one offensive touchdown. This will be an easy assignment for defensive-minded Gary Patterson, who’ll lean on LB Paul Dawson, tackles Chucky Hunter and safeties Sam Carter and Chris Hackett to keep SMU skidding. 
Why SMU Might Win: The Horned Frogs are still evolving in their new offensive scheme, which could provide an opening for the Mustangs to attack from the second level with linebackers Jonathan Yenga and Stephon Sanders. TCU has been one-dimensional so far, QB Trevone Boykin, and it struggled on third downs in the Minnesota win. 
Who To Watch Out For: Boykin needs more help if the Horned Frogs are going to compete for a Big 12 title. WR Josh Doctson is a playmaker on the outside, but someone needs to emerge from the glut of similar backs this weekend. Boykin leads the team in carries and yards, categories that should be dominated by B.J. Catalon or Aaron Green. 
What’s Going To Happen: TCU would have to completely look past SMU to succumb this weekend. And even then, the Horned Frogs would likely get out of Dallas with a W. They’ll suffocate the impotent Mustang offense, while getting another productive day from Boykin to coast to a lopsided win. 
Prediction: TCU 42 … SMU 3 
Line: TCU -31 o/u: 49.5 
Must Watch Factor: (5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society) … 2 

UTEP (2-1) at Kansas State (2-1) Sept. 27, 12:00, FSN 

Here’s The Deal: So close. Kansas State was so close to upsetting No. 5 Auburn last Thursday night to the delight of the Manhattan crowd. But an inability to execute properly, on offense and on special teams, denied the Wildcats a momentous occasion. Still, they played well enough against an elite opponent to now be considered a legitimate Big 12 contender. UTEP has been a pleasant surprise at the start of Sean Kugler’s second season. The Miners have beaten both New Mexico teams, and could be unbeaten if not for a blown lead late in the final quarter to Texas Tech. 
Why UTEP Might Win: The Miners have already proven once this season that they can play with a Big 12 opponent, the Red Raiders, so they won’t be overwhelmed by this trip. UTEP is executing the offense to Kugler’s wishes, running the ball with great success. Led by budding star Aaron Jones, the Miners are averaging 315 yards per game. And the young line is gaining confidence each week. 
Why Kansas State Might Win: While there’s work to be done, the Cats showed a lot in the Auburn loss, especially on defense. They snapped the Tigers’ 13-game streak of 200-yard rushing games, with plenty of help from the undersized and overly active back seven defenders. The KSU offense, with Jake Waters at the controls, will move the ball liberally on a UTEP defense with plenty of holes. 
Who To Watch Out For: Is this the week that Kansas State WR Tyler Lockett plays up to his enormous ability? He’s one of the Big 12’s most explosive playmakers, yet he’s only accounted for 190 yards and one score from scrimmage. The Wildcats, especially Waters, need Lockett to be Lockett before league play resumes. 
What’s Going To Happen: UTEP is improved, and K-State could be hung over from the Auburn game, so a competitive first half is likely. The Wildcats, though, will seize control in the third quarter behind the unheralded D and a balanced offense. The Miners need more than just Jones in this type of matchup, yet QB Jameill Showers continues to lack consistency. 
Prediction: Kansas State 41 … UTEP 23 
Line: Kansas State -30 o/u: 56 
Must Watch Factor: (5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society) … 2.5  

Texas (1-2) at Kansas (2-1) Sept. 27, 12:00, FOX Sports 1 

Here’s The Deal: 0-for-Big 12. Kansas has never beaten Texas since the Big 12 was formed in 1996 going winless in 11 tries. However, KU hasn’t been a total dud in the series history pulling off a 1918 win to open up the 1938 season. In other words, the Jayhawks are due. 

It’s been a rough run for the Jayhawks under Charlie Weis, but they were able to come up with a nice 24-10 win over a Central Michigan team that beat Purdue early in the season to come within a game of matching last year’s win total. Beating the Longhorns would be a gamechanger for a program in desperate need of a shot in the arm, even if Charlie Strong doesn’t have Texas back to being Texas again. 

It’s been a rough run for the Longhorns with suspensions, the loss of starting quarterback David Ash, and losses to BYU and UCLA making it a second straight year with a 1-2 start. But with the Big 12 opener means a new chance to turn things around. Unfortunately, this is the free space game, and it’s not going to get any easier with all of the Big 12 big boys still to deal with. Is it 1938 again? If so, it’ll be time to pack it in and prepare for 2015. 

Why Texas Might Win: What’s been the Longhorns’ biggest problem? The banged up O line isn’t getting much of a push and QB Tyrone Swoopes is just starting to figure out what he’s doing. The Kansas run defense hasn’t faced anyone with a ground attack so far, but it’s about to get plowed over. Duke was able to take off for 331 yards and three scores, but that was with a little bit of finesse. Expect the Texas gameplan to be see guy, hit guy, and let the backs do the work. The KU back seven will be really, really busy. 

Why Kansas Might Win: The Texas offense can’t really find anything it can count on. The defense took care of business in the opener against North Texas and the O fed off it. BYU didn’t allow much of anything, and UCLA loaded up and stopped the run. This isn’t an explosive enough Longhorn team to get out to a big lead that KU can’t rally back from – Texas simply doesn’t move the chains. With points at a premium, it might take one or two big plays somewhere to turn the game around, and that’s where …
Who To Watch Out For: JaCorey Shepherd comes in. The Jayhawk corner has been okay so far for the defensive backfield, but he’s been a playmaker with the ball in his hands averaging over 28 yards per kickoff return. Nice in the open field with the ball in his hands and as a tackler, he came up with five good stops against CMU with a pick. 

What’s Going To Happen: Texas won’t make the mistakes Kansas will, and that includes getting the coin flip right. The Jayhawk running game won’t work, Montrell Cozart will be a baller enough to keep the game alive, but he’ll eventually throw one big pick that’ll turn the tide.

Prediction: Texas 24 … Kansas 13 
Line: Texas -13.5 o/u: 41.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society … 2 

Baylor (3-0) at Iowa State (1-2) Sept. 27, 8:00, FOX 

Here’s The Deal: Is Iowa State actually any good? North Dakota State is FCS-championship good, and Kansas State is gag away a win over Auburn good, but it was the win over Iowa in thrilling fashion that showed that maybe this isn’t the pushover of a Cyclone team of past seasons. Maybe, just maybe, there’s enough fight and cohesiveness to pull off a few Big 12 upsets and come up with a solid season as the spoiler. 

Or maybe Baylor will be Baylor and hang 70 on the board by the time you get back from making a sandwich. 

It’s almost comical how everyone has become so immune to the Baylor explosiveness. Ho hum, just another 63-point day in a blowout win. But the problem has been the competition, beating SMU, Northwestern State, and Buffalo in a true preseason. With Texas looking down, all of a sudden, the schedule that might have been tough with a three game road trip – with the date in Ames sandwiched in the middle – now appearing to be a walk in the park on the way to a 5-0 start before dealing with TCU. But all it takes is one bad performance – like the Oklahoma State debacle of last year – to ruin all the fun. Iowa State has had its moments over the years when it comes to pulling off shockers. 

This isn’t a good Iowa State team, but it has a decent defense, it battles hard, and it has just enough positives to have a puncher’s chance to keep this close at home if everything goes the right way. Unfortunately, there’s a long way to go to merely be decent against the Bears, having a few problems on the way to a 71-7 loss last year. 

Why Baylor Might Win: Granted, the competition hasn’t been anything to worry about so far, but still, the offense is working as expected. The Bears are averaging a nation-leading 59 points per game, while Iowa State has scored a grand total of 62 points on the season in three games. Iowa State simply doesn’t have the punch to keep up any sort of pace, and it doesn’t have the run defense up front to hold up if BU wants to ground and pound a bit to take control early. ISU generates a little bit of pressure into the backfield, but it shouldn’t matter – Baylor has yet to allow a sack.

Why Iowa State Might Win: The Cyclone special teams – especially the punting and return games – are among the best in the nation, and there won’t be a slew of easy yards for a Baylor O that doesn’t need them – ISU rarely gets flagged. But it’ll take far more than just a few big returns from Jarvis West or big boots from Colin Downing to have any shot. Against Iowa, the defensive front did a fantastic job keeping the big running plays to a minimum, failing to allow anything more than a 13-yard scramble from QB Jake Rudock. Iowa State will have to pick its poison, but there’s a slight chance that the Iowa game was a turning point for a D that’ll need to come up with a special effort. 

Who To Watch Out For: The only remote shot Iowa State has is if the defensive front is banging around Bryce Petty all game long. Senior Core Morrissey only came up with two sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss last year, but this year already he has a team-leading 3.5 sacks with 4.5 tackles for loss, coming up with two sacks against Iowa. More than that, he and the Cyclone line have to at least bother Petty and throw off the rhythm. If Petty is getting comfortable in any way and can get into a groove, it’s over.
What’s Going To Happen: Iowa State will be jacked up enough to make it a national headline that it’s keeping the game tight – for a half. Two easy second half Baylor scoring drives will open up the floodgates. 
Prediction: Baylor 54 … Iowa State 17 
Line: Baylor -21 o/u: 69 Line: Texas -13.5 o/u: 41.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society … 2