Arkansas (3-1) vs. Texas A&M (4-0) in Arlington. Sept. 27, 3:30, CBS 

Here’s The Deal: The two old Southwest Conference rivals are now into their biggest and most important battle league battle since the 14-0 Aggie win in 1987. This time around, every win in the SEC West is about survival in a division loaded from top to bottom, and this time, one of the programs will be able to make an emphatic, potentially season-directing statement with a huge win in Arlington. 

After losing the opening weekend to Auburn, a loss effectively ends any and all SEC title hopes for Arkansas. No one’s predicting an SEC title, even with a win over the Aggies, but if the Hogs are good enough to beat A&M, they might be good enough to be really, really dangerous with Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss all home games and with five of the next six games on home turf. The running game is humming, the team is starting to take on the brash attitude of its head coach, and there are signs that the program is about to become a major player, if it isn’t one already. But Beating Texas Tech doesn’t qualify as a big win, at least not on the SEC West world. Arkansas has lost its last 13 SEC games and has just one West win – Auburn in 2012 – in its last 14. 

It’s statement time for Texas A&M. The Aggies set the tone to start the season with an emphatic and dominant win over South Carolina, and while there hasn’t been anything more than a light speed bump to deal with over the last three games against Lamar, Rice and SMU, the offense has been sharp as a tack with Heisman-contender Kenny Hill taking target practice. With road games against Mississippi State, Auburn and Alabama still to deal with down the road, there’s almost no margin for error in a neutral site game like this. And on the flip side, if A&M can handle the rising Hog team with ease, it would be as intimidating and impressive as any win by anyone this year, proving the 2014 Aggies can get physical to go along with all of the flash. 

Why Arkansas Might Win: Is this when the Texas A&M run defense gets exposed? The Aggies got up so quickly on South Carolina that Mike Davis and company didn’t have a chance to establish itself. Rice ran for 240 yards in the blowout loss, and SMU and Lamar are SMU and Lamar, so while the Aggies have yet to give up a rushing score, they haven’t been challenged. The South Carolina line was and is terrific, but Arkansas brings more power, and A&M has to get used to it in a hurry. Defensively, the Razorbacks already dealt with a high-powered, high-octane passing attack with the win over Texas Tech, and once they adjusted to the speed and rhythm of the Red Raider attack, they were just fine. Texas A&M is more than a passing game, but throwing it is how the machine runs best. 

Why Texas A&M Might Win: Does Arkansas have the ability to keep up? The Hogs will run first and run often, and even if they get behind, the answer will be to run and run again. The passing game is ultra-efficient, but that’s a function of the ground game that opens everything else up – if the D isn’t committed to putting nine guys up to focus on the running backs, it’ll get steamrolled over. Yeah, the Hog secondary did a nice job of containing the Texas Tech passing game, but it was picked apart by the Auburn quarterbacks and allowed the FBS quarterbacks on the schedule to complete 63% of their passes with seven scores. Arkansas has a pass rush, but Kenny Hill is getting the ball out of his hands so quickly, and the A&M offense so efficient, that he’s neutralizing the pressure with great decisions. If Arkansas won’t allow the deep ball, Hill will just dink and dunk to his heart’s content. A&M doesn’t care about time of possession – the offense scores in a hurry – but if it needs to go on a long march to keep the Hog O off the field, it can. 

Who To Watch Out For: One special teams play probably isn’t going to be enough to change this shootout around, but there should be some explosions. With so many offensive stars and with so many weapons on both sides of the ball, expect lots of points and lots of kickoffs, playing into a major strength for each team. Arkansas has only returned eight kicks, but it has been terrific with Korliss Marshall averaging close to 38 yards per try with a score, bringing one back against Northern Illinois. Texas A&M hasn’t had too many opportunities to bring out kickoffs, but Trey Williams has been excellent and Speedy Noil took his one try out 53 yards. 

What’s Going To Happen: Both teams will play to their respective types. Arkansas will get its yards on the ground, A&M will get its yards through the air, and while the Hogs will battle hard and make it a fight, Hill and the Aggie offense will be too effective for a full four quarters. Arkansas will need to throw late, and it won’t be able to.

Prediction: Texas A&M 41 … Arkansas 31 
Line: Texas A&M -8.5 o/u: 69.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society … 4