Week 7: Auburn at Mississippi State

Auburn (5-0) at Mississippi State (5-0) Oct. 11, 3:30, CBS

Here’s The Deal: This is the 87th meeting between the two with Auburn winning five of the last six and 12 of the last 14, but since the first game in 1910 – a huge 6-0 Auburn home victory – there has never been between the two this important for both sides.

Florida State isn’t the best team in the country right now – at least it’s not playing like it – and it sure isn’t Baylor. Ole Miss might be in the discussion for the nation’s top spot, but if you’re going by how the teams are looking and playing so far, and if you’ve seen all five wins for each team, yeah, this really and truly might be a 1 vs. 2 battle – even if it isn’t exactly defined which one is which.

Great win, Mississippi State, over Texas A&M. Tremendous win. Dominant win. Program changing, Dan Mullen-defining win. It was absolutely breathtaking, and combining with the outstanding performance against LSU two weeks earlier – at least until the final minutes – this really and truly is playing like the No. 1 team in college football.

And then Auburn comes to town.

The Tigers didn’t have the same problems MSU did against LSU, dominating from the start with a defiant 41-7 win that sort of got buried on a day full of classing games. It’s not like Auburn seemed to be holding anything back against the Kansas State’s of the world, and it sure gave it all in the opener against Arkansas, but this was a different team last week. This was starting to look like the Auburn that could repeat as SEC champs. This, like Mississippi State, also looked like the No. 1 team in college football.

The fun doesn’t stop here for Auburn with road games at Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama still to deal with, along with home dates with South Carolina and Texas A&M in conference play, while the Bulldogs still need to deal with Alabama and Ole Miss on the road. But whatever happens this week, if you want to put the winner up at No. 1, you’ll probably be right.

Why Auburn Might Win: The Mississippi State secondary has held up extremely well under the pressure of getting bombed on – teams have attempted a whopping 229 throws in the five games – but UAB showed a little bit with the downfield passing game, and last week, the Texas A&M game might have been a whole bunch different had the Aggie receivers been able to hang on to the ball. Auburn’s bread will always be buttered with the running game, but it has a pair of killer receivers on the outside in Sammie Coates and D’haquille Williams, whose size could give the Bulldog defenders fits.

The big key, though, is that you have to get to Dak Prescott before he’s able to get up a head of steam. Auburn’s defensive front made mincemeat out of poor Brandon Harris and the LSU quarterbacks last week, keeping them to 8-of-24 through the air and not letting anything happen on the ground outside of one big run from Harris. This Tiger defensive front knows how to bottle up good runners.

Why Mississippi State Might Win: Mississippi State can be a Kansas State, only stronger and sharper. LSU was supposed to be that, too, and Auburn walked away laughing with a blowout win. The difference is in the efficiency and effectiveness of Prescott and the Bulldog offense that never seemed to have a wasted step against A&M, or against LSU for most of the game. You want offensive balance? 279 yards through the air, and 280 on the ground against the Aggies. MSU can run better than Kansas State could, and Prescott should have a much better time through the air.

Defensively, the Bulldogs’ biggest key to success so far has been on third downs – forget about it. Again, dropped passes had a lot to do with it, but Texas A&M couldn’t keep the chains moving in key spots. On the year, the Bulldogs are allowing teams to convert a horrendous 26.5% of their third down tries with only South Alabama nailing with more than 30%. If you have a smart, veteran, disciplined front seven, everything else will fall into place against the Tiger attack. That means MSU needs to have a huge performance from …

Who To Watch Out For: Veteran linebacker Benardrick McKinney, a massive 6-5, 250-pound hitter who rocked Texas A&M for nine tackles and is the unquestioned leader both in production and attitude for the MSU defensive front. This is his third game against Auburn, and he was a big reason the Bulldogs allowed just 120 rushing yards and no scores last year.

Of course, the big spotlight will be on the Heisman-caliber quarterback showdown, with Auburn’s Nick Marshall starting out the season with eight touchdown passes and just one interception, and now he’s just getting warmed up on the ground with two straight 100-yard days with two scores against LSU. Last year, he was held in check running the ball, but he came up with his best game as the starter bombing away for 339 yards and bailing the team out of massive jams.

Marshall might be a superstar, but at the moment, it’s Dak Prescott’s season. The 6-2, 230-pound junior is nailing 64% of his throws with 13 touchdowns and two picks, while plowing his way to 455 yards and six touchdowns. Despite the absence of his top target, Jameon Lewis, with a leg injury, and without starting center Dillon Day due to suspension, Prescott still managed to come up with a Downtown Athletic Club-worthy effort against Texas A&M, hitting 19-of-25 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns, while running for 77 yards and three scores. Last year he tore through Auburn for 133 yards and two scores on the ground, and he has to come close to that again.

What’s Going To Happen: Mississippi State turned out to be one of Auburn’s toughest tests last year. This time around, the Bulldogs will get their offensive balance going a bit better while the run defense will do its job to keep Marshall and company from running wild. Expect yet another SEC West classic.

Prediction: Mississippi State 38 … Auburn 34
Line: Auburn -3 o/u: 71
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge … 5