Indiana (3-2) at Iowa (4-1) Oct. 11, 12:00, ESPNU 

Here’s The Deal: The world forgot about Iowa after its 20-17 loss to Iowa State – the Cyclones’ only win of the season, but it’s 4-1 after coming up with two road wins over Pitt and Purdue, and before having to go on a run of three road games in four weeks, it gets a date with a Indiana team that has the explosion, but not the consistency. 

The Hoosiers have been one week on, one week off, and after beating North Texas, if the pattern holds, this is the week off, sort of like what happened to start last season alternating between wins and losses over the first six games of last year. Sometimes the offense clicks, sometimes it’s enough, sometimes it struggles to come up with just one stop when it absolutely has to have one. Considering Iowa doesn’t have a fun or exciting offense, could this be the week the Hoosiers make a statement? 

The Hawkeyes lost the last time these two played back in 2012, but won four straight before that. If this year’s version is for real, it takes IU down without a problem. But the Hoosiers are just dangerous enough to make this fun, no matter what. 

Why Indiana Might Win: Iowa just isn’t scoring. It’s not like the Purdue defense is going to scare anyone, yet Iowa could only manage 24 points two weeks ago in the win. The running game is mediocre, there’s no downfield passing game, and there’s nothing to suggest that the offense will finally break free from the 24-point barrier it can’t break through against FBS teams. Going back to last year, Iowa has scored more than 24 points just twice in its last 13 games against the FBSers. Indiana, for all of its faults, has been held under 28 just once so far this season. 

Why Iowa Might Win: As always, when the Indiana offense doesn’t work, it really doesn’t work. The ground game has been special all year long thanks to Tevin Coleman, but the team needs the passing game to click to beat the better teams. Iowa pass defense will give up the midrange stuff, and it’ll get picked apart a drive or two here and there, but for the most part, it’s been okay, giving up just four touchdown passes – two to Iowa State – with five picks on the season. 

Who To Watch Out For: Indiana makes a habit of getting the ball out of QB Nate Sudfeld’s hands in a hurry, but it’s not immune to the pressure when it’s coming from several angles. The Iowa pass rush struggled after a great game against Northern Iowa, but it perked back up against Purdue two weeks ago coming up with four sacks and destroying any hope of a passing attack. Take IU out of its rhythm, stop the IU offense. That means Drew Ott and Louis Trinca-Pasat have to come up big both inside and out. However …

What’s Going To Happen: Iowa just doesn’t score. Indiana might not have much of a defense, but it’s been okay outside of the weird game against Bowling Green. Iowa is going to have to make this ugly, and it’s going to have to grind it out, but it’ll keep the Hoosier offense on the sideline, there won’t be many big mistakes, and the run defense will keep Coleman in check. 

Prediction: Iowa 24 … Indiana 20 
Line: Iowa -3 o/u: 56 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge … 3