San Diego State (2-3) at New Mexico (2-3) Oct. 10, 9:30, ESPNU 

Here’s The Deal: San Diego State and New Mexico meet in Albuquerque, both with an eye on reaching the .500 mark at the halfway point in the season. Fourth-year Aztec coach Rocky Long is returning to his old stomping grounds, where he was the Lobo head coach for more than a decade. He’s had an up-and-down start to 2014 on the Mesa, while trying to manage injuries on both sides of the ball. New Mexico hasn’t been the same since Long left, but the team returns home with momentum. Over the last three games, the Lobos have beaten rival New Mexico State, played Fresno State tough and upset UTSA as a 16-point underdog. 
Why San Diego State Might Win: Long’s defense will be ready. Long’s defense is always ready. The Aztecs are a well-coached unit that allows just 3.4 yards per carry, and will not have to worry about the New Mexico passing game. San Diego State will flood the box with linebackers Calvin Munson, Josh Gavert and Cody Galea, who’ve collectively done a solid job of filling lanes and tackling in the open field. 
Why New Mexico Might Win: Yeah, the Lobos are one-dimensional, but that dimension can be a game-changer. Bob Davie’s kids operate out of the triple-option pistol, which is producing six yards a carry and 322 rushing yards per game. QB Cole Gautsche is back from injury, but Lamar Jordan has played well enough to keep the job. And backs Jhurell Pressley and Crusoe Gongbay have each run well, ensuring that legs will be fresh Friday night. 
Who To Watch Out For: New Mexico was successful when its quarterback went down. San Diego State is hoping for similar results from freshman Nick Bawden, who’ll be starting his second game for starter Quinn Kaehler. Bawden looked his age at Fresno State last week, completing 9-of-24 for 84 yards, a touchdown and a pick. With Kaehler and top receiver Ezell Ruffin out, the Aztecs will lean harder than ever on RB Donnel Pumphrey. 
What’s Going To Happen: The Lobos are confident and eager to put that confidence on display for the home crowd. The Aztecs have the better D, but they’re battered and inexperienced under center. New Mexico, on the other hand has ideal depth at quarterback, and the ground troops needed to wear down San Diego State for a second-straight upset. 
Prediction: New Mexico 28 … San Diego State 27 
Line: San Diego State -6 o/u: 51.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge… 2 

Fresno State (3-3) at UNLV (1-5) Oct. 10, 10:00, CBS Sports Network 

Here’s The Deal: Two West Division rivals moving in disparate directions meet Friday night in Las Vegas. Defending champion Fresno State has rebounded nicely from an 0-3 start to win its last three games, shaking loose from San Diego State a week ago. The Bulldogs are once again the divisional favorite, though they can ill-afford to look beyond this game. UNLV returns home from a demoralizing three-game road trip that produced three lopsided losses. Based on how they’ve played in the first half, it’s hard to imagine that these Rebels bowled last year. 
Why Fresno State Might Win: UNLV is in disarray everywhere, including on D, where it’s given up at least 33 points to all five FBS opponents. This is a good spot for the Bulldog offense to capture some momentum around the running of Marteze Waller and the passing of Brian Burrell to WR Josh Harper. To really catch the Rebels off guard, Fresno State coach Tim DeRuyter likes to use QB Brandon Connette as a situational runner. 
Why UNLV Might Win: Fresno State has settled down, but it remains vulnerable through the air, having already yielded 18 touchdown passes. The onus falls on Rebel quarterbacks Blake Decker and Nick Sherry to exploit the rebuilt Bulldog defensive backfield. Fortunately, UNLV has a deep corps of receivers, even if star Devante Davis remains out with a wrist injury. True freshman Devonte Boyd, in particular, has done a nice job picking up the slack. 
Who To Watch Out For: As the schedule has softened, the Fresno State D has regrouped accordingly. The Bulldogs have allowed an average of just 18 points over the last three games, and there are all-star leaders at each level. NG Tyeler Davison, linebackers Ejiro Ederaine and Kyrie Wilson and S Derron Smith are capable of making game-changing plays Friday night. 
What’s Going To Happen: UNLV and Fresno State are moving in opposite directions, a trend that’ll continue this week. The Rebels have lost hope and confidence. The Bulldogs will seize the opportunity with a one-sided road victory. 
Prediction: Fresno State 34 … UNLV 17 
Line: Fresno State -11.5 o/u: 65.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge… 1.5 

Air Force (4-1) at Utah State (3-2) Oct. 11, 10:15, ESPNU 

Here’s The Deal: Two of the Mountain West’s first-half upstarts will decide in Logan Saturday night which team truly is the bigger surprise so far in 2014. How can Air Force be properly explained? The same Falcon team that went 4-8 last year, and lost to Wyoming in Week 2, has risen up to win three straight, capped by successive upsets of Boise State and Navy. Utah State is kind of tough to figure as well right now. Just days after learning that QB Chuckie Keeton, the face of the program, was done for the year, the Aggies defeated rival BYU in Provo for the first time since 1978. 
Why Air Force Might Win: The Falcons have really started to put it all together lately. LB Jordan Pierce and S Weston Steelhammer spearhead a D that’s sound versus the run, and has only allowed one opponent in five games to score more than 21 points. And on offense, the attack is more multiple than in recent years, blending the running of Jacobi Owens with the dual-threat talents of QB Kale Pearson and the clutch receiving of Garrett Brown. 
Why Utah State Might Win: The Aggies know they can win with Darell Garretson filling Keeton’s cleats. The sophomore did it last week in Provo, throwing for three scores and 321 yards, and he went 6-1 as a rookie starter in 2013. The offense, particularly WR Hunter Sharp, have a lot of confidence in Garretson. On D, Utah State is a notch better than Air Force. The Ags yield just 2.6 yards per carry, which will help neutralize the Falcons’ trademark ground game. 
Who To Watch Out For: Owens and Pearson will be seeing double on Friday, as they try to evade not one, but two Vigils on Friday. The Vigil brothers, senior Zach and sophomore Nick, have collaborated on 91 tackles so far this season. As if that’s not enough, Nick did his Myles Jack impersonation in Week 6, rushing for 57 yards and a score in the BYU win. 
What’s Going To Happen: This is a huge game in the Mountain West, which will impact the eventual Mountain Division winner. Both teams are hot, coming off upsets of rivals. Utah State, though, has the tougher all-around D, the benefit of the Romney Stadium crowd and a young quarterback with an uncanny ability to bring out the best in those around him. 
Prediction: Utah State 30 … Air Force 21 
Line: Utah State -7 o/u: 48.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge… 2 

Colorado State (4-1) at Nevada (3-2) Oct. 11, 10:30, CBS Sports Network 

Here’s The Deal: Colorado State is one of the hottest teams in the Mountain West, but can it continue now that conference play is resuming? The Rams have impressively won three straight, but all out of league, UC Davis, Boston College and Tulsa. This week’s trip to Reno kicks off a stretch of games that’ll determine just how much of a threat CSU is out of the Mountain Division. Nevada will need to have a short memory after losing a shootout to Boise State on Saturday, 51-46. If the Pack allows last week’s heartbreak to linger too long, it’s liable to drift further behind Fresno State in the West race. 
Why Colorado State Might Win: After watching the tape of the Nevada’s defense getting shredded by Boise State, the Rams will be salivating. Coach Jim McElwain has done a terrific job of constructing a balanced attack around QB Garrett Grayson and backs Treyous Jarrells and Dee Hart, an Alabama transfer. Colorado State averages 34 points per game, while ranking no lower than fourth in the league in rushing and passing. 
Why Nevada Might Win: The Rams will score. The Wolf Pack, though, will score more. Nevada is coming off its best offensive output of the year, amassing 462 yards on a pretty good Boise State D. QB Cody Fajardo is a one-man gang, though he’ll also get support from RB Don Jackson and an improving corps of receivers. Colorado State has yet to face a playmaker this season with the dynamic all-around skill set of Fajardo. 
Who To Watch Out For: Besides looking to shake off a four-pick game against the Broncos, Fajardo will worry about Colorado State DE Joe Kawulok, who posted 3.5 sacks against Tulsa last Saturday. At 6-6 and 260 pounds, Kawulok is an imposing figure off the edge, and his emergence occurred at an ideal time for a Ram front still adjusting to wholesale. If he can apply pressure again this week, Fajardo will gift-wrap a few passes for the veteran CSU secondary. 
What’s Going To Happen: While it’s never easy winning away from home, Colorado State has become a road warrior lately, winning six of its last eight outside Fort Collins. Fajardo is a bona fide difference-maker. But the Rams are the more complete team, winning in multiple phases, including special teams. They’ll control the clock, and earn another measure of respect with a win in Reno. 
Prediction: Colorado State 33 … Nevada 28 
Line: Nevada -1.5 o/u: 64.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge… 2 

Wyoming (3-2) at Hawaii (1-4) Oct. 11, 12:00, Mountain West Network 

Here’s The Deal: Wyoming has recovered from its lopsided loss to Michigan State two weeks ago, and is ready to keep building for first-year head coach Craig Bohl. The Cowboys are the only team to hand Air Force a loss in 2014, and a win in Honolulu will position them for a legitimate run toward bowl-eligibility in November. It’s been a trying fall for Hawaii coach Norm Chow, both on and away from the field. His Warriors are headed toward another losing season, unable to break through in close games. But Chow’s bigger concern right now is his wife, Diane, who was hospitalized with a brain aneurysm last Friday. 
Why Wyoming Might Win: Bohl’s defense will have the upper hand on the Hawaii offense. In games against teams not named Michigan State or Oregon, the Cowboys have allowed just 15 points a contest. While a few more sacks and takeaways would be nice, Wyoming has made timely stops when needed. The Warriors, meanwhile, are floundering at quarterback, and have missed injured RB Joey Iosefa. 
Why Hawaii Might Win: Can Wyoming score enough points to win on the road for the first time this season? The Cowboys have been impotent with the ball all year, ranking last in the Mountain West in scoring. And now comes this week’s trip to play Hawaii, which has been salty in the front seven. Beau Yap and Moses Samia are rugged at the point of attack, and Dee Maggitt and Ne’Quan Phillips are ball-hawks in the secondary. 
Who To Watch Out For: Wyoming QB Colby Kirkegaard may be a senior, but he’s still experiencing growing pains in his first as Brett Smith’s successor. In five games he’s thrown just five touchdown passes, and the fact that standout WR Dominic Rufran hasn’t pulled down one of them indicates how much Smith’s ill-advised departure to the NFL has impacted this offense. 
What’s Going To Happen: Neither team is having any success on offense, and probably won’t this weekend. Hawaii has played well at home this season, losing by just nine total points to Washington and Oregon State of the Pac-12. The Warriors will bypass the moral victory this week, nabbing a real one behind the defense and the running of Steven Lakalaka. 
Prediction: Hawaii 24 … Wyoming 20 
Line: Hawaii -3.5 o/u: 45 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge… 1.5