Week 7: Oklahoma vs. Texas

Texas (2-3) vs. Oklahoma (4-1) in Dallas Oct. 11, 12:00, ABC

Here’s The Deal: Is it possible the Red River Rivalry (wrong) … Red River Shootout (nope) … Red River Showdown (there it is) … defy logic and reason? Last year, a dud of a Texas team found a way to rise up and smackdown the Sooners 36-20 after getting obliterated 63-21 in 2012 and 55-17 in 2011, but this year, things are different. Things are a bit more desperate for both sides, but in vastly different ways.

Can this finally be a good rivalry, shootout, showdown game? It’s a far cry from the days when this game stopped the sports world, but just a decent game would do. Considering the trends with both programs, though, that might be asking for a bit much.

Things are going to get better in a hurry under Charlie Strong, but for now, it’s going to take a little while before Texas starts to do all the things he wants. This isn’t a total teardown, but it’s going to be a process before the Longhorns become major players again. However, the defense wasn’t miserable in last week’s loss to Baylor, and the 23-0 win over Kansas was enough to end the Charlie Weis era – there’s enough D to make this interesting. With Iowa State up next, there’s a chance to turn things around in a big way with a win, but if they lose, at 2-4, it’s going to be a dogfight to get bowl eligible.

OU is coming off an emotional late loss to TCU and a shootout against West Virginia, but with a home game against Kansas State up next followed up by a trip to Iowa State, everything should be set up perfectly for a showdown against Baylor to take control of the Big 12 title chase – if TCU stumbles along the way. This is a very, very good Sooner team, but can it be a great one? Can it run the table and win a Big 12 title on the way to a College Football Playoff spot?

Why Texas Might Win: Which Trevor Knight is Texas going to get? Is Mr. Perry going to be the one who hits on his downfield plays and runs for 61 yards – like he did against TCU on the way to a 309-yard passing day – or will be the one who completed 14-of-35 passes with two big interceptions? Texas might have its problems, but rocking against the passing game isn’t among them, holding Baylor star Bryce Petty to a 7-of-22 day for 111 yards and two scores last week. The secondary tightened up in a huge way after struggling against the UCLA passers, and with good pressure and a far more aggressive defensive backfield than last year, Knight could be in for a rough time. Last year, Blake Bell completed 12-of-26 passes for 133 yards and two picks.
Can this finally be a good rivalry, shootout, showdown game? It’s a far cry from the days when this game stopped the sports world, but just a decent game would do. Considering the trends with both programs, though, that might be asking for a bit much.

Why Oklahoma Might Win: The Texas offense just can’t seem to find anything that consistently works. The passing game came up with over 200 yards against Kansas, but who doesn’t do that? Last week, under heavy pressure, Tyrone Swoopes struggled completing just 16-of-34 passes for 144 yards and two interceptions. There’s nothing happening down the field, and the banged up offensive line isn’t able to do anything for a running game that isn’t picking up the slack. It won’t take much to put this game away. If the Sooners are able to somehow get two early scores and make Swoopes press, it’s not going to be pretty. In the three losses, Texas and its 114th ranked offense managed a grand total of 31 points.

Who To Watch Out For: The Biletnikoff Award given to the nation’s top receiver has already been unofficially handed out to Alabama’s Amari Cooper, but Oklahoma’s Sterling Shepard is making a case. He only has 30 catches for far in five games – good, but not great – but it’s what he’s doing with them, ripping up the last four games with over 100 yards each including a 215-yard day against a strong TCU secondary last week. Averaging close to 22 yards per catch, he’s the gamebreaker who could break the Texas D.

What’s Going To Happen: Texas will come up with an extra gear and an extra fire, but that will only last so long. Knight will have a second straight bad game, but Samaje Perine and the ground game will make up for it, while the OU defense will come out roaring after last week’s debacle.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38 … Texas 13
Line: Oklahoma -14.5 o/u: 47
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge … 3