Week 7: Ole Miss at Texas A&M

Ole Miss (5-0) at Texas A&M (5-1) Oct. 11, 9:00, ESPN

Here’s The Deal: For all the great things Ole Miss was able to do last week against Alabama, and with all of the positives in the potential program-changing/defining win, it might not matter a whole bunch without a win this week against Texas A&M. Yeah, beating the Tide was great, but a loss in College Station would put the Rebels right back into the SEC West grab bag.

Of course, on this is the shot at redemption for A&M. Mississippi State is playing at a high level, and it might be really good, but the Aggies helped contribute to last week’s 48-31 loss with dropped passes, turnovers, and general sloppy play that turned the game into a rout. Is this the team that throttled South Carolina and gutted its way past Arkansas, or is this another Johnny Football-like team with lots of flash and dash but nothing to show for it? There’s still time, but with road games against Alabama and Auburn ahead, a loss at home to Ole Miss would be absolutely devastating.

There’s still plenty of work for Ole Miss to do, but all things considered, the remaining slate is about as favorable as it possibly gets with the nastiest games against Auburn and Mississippi State at home, along with a date with Tennessee, while having to go on the road to face – at the moment – the West’s two weakest teams in LSU and Arkansas. By any other standards that would be a nightmare, but this season, if Ole Miss is good enough to beat Alabama, it’s good enough to win each and every one of the rest of the games on the slate.

This is only the seventh time the two programs have met, with the last two since A&M joined the SEC turning into tight battles – the Aggies won both by three points. Ole Miss is 0-6 all-time, starting out with a 17-0 loss in 1911 – obviously the battle with Henderson State three days before was a problem.

Why Ole Miss Might Win: So how did Mississippi State make it look so easy? Again, Aggie receivers dropping passes left and right certainly helped, but it was the offensive balance that kept the A&M defense from ever getting comfortable. Dak Prescott was nearly flawless, and while Rebel QB Bo Wallace has shown a penchant for throwing an interception or two here and there, he also proved against Alabama that he can be air-tight, too. If he’s not making mistakes and he’s able to press his throws to the outside, the running game that wasn’t there against Alabama should open up. The Rebel defense that’s been so great against the run should be solid against the okay Aggie ground game, but …

Why Texas A&M Might Win: Can the Rebels dial up the pass rush to get to Kenny Hill? You have to pressure Hill to throw him off his rhythm, and with four sacks last week, the Bulldogs never let him get comfortable. Even so, and even most of his misfires coming from drops, Hill still threw for 365 yards and four scores. Ole Miss has a phenomenal defense, but it doesn’t dial up the pressure like Mississippi State does. You can beat this Rebel D with quick-hitting throws as long as you’re not forcing it – Hill can do that. Hill can’t be afraid to get picked off here and there – the aggressive Rebel secondary can make big plays – and he has to keep on pressing. There’s no way A&M will play two sloppy games in a row.

Who To Watch Out For: Ole Miss is second in the nation in passing efficiency defense and ninth in pass D helped by ten interceptions in the five games including a very, very big one last week by Senquez Golson to seal the win. A bit overshadowed by the star safeties and the other playmakers on defense, he’s the veteran and he’s the one who’s been around over the last four years to know exactly how special this all is. With two picks including one for a score against Louisiana-Lafayette, and one against Boise State and one against Alabama, he has four on the year to go along with 17 tackles and three broken up passes.

What’s Going To Happen: A&M will be back to form, but it’s going to be a third straight fight. It took everything to come back and beat Arkansas, and last week it was a struggle to get going against the Bulldogs, but Bo Wallace will be mediocre Bo with a few key interceptions, and Hill and the Aggie passing game will shine in the fourth quarter for yet another win that’ll turn the SEC West around.

Prediction: Texas A&M 34 … Ole Miss 31
Line: Texas A&M -1.5 o/u: 60
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge … 5