Penn State (4-1) at Michigan (2-4) Oct. 11, 7:00 ESPN2 

Here’s The Deal: Last year, Penn State pulled out a wild 43-40 win, making it a fourth win in a row in the series. In 2005, Michigan handed the Nittany Lions their only loss of the season on a thrilling late play for a 27-25 win. These two college football superpowers have played some classics, and they’ve each had their down moments during times of transition, and now, this could be something a little different – pure desperation. 

If it’s possible for a team to be 4-1 and in need of a win, it might be Penn State after it was exposed for having no running game and a suddenly suspect offense overall in a 29-6 loss to Northwestern. There have been some fun, thrilling moments so far, but with Ohio State up next, there could be a big slide if they’re the suckers who end up losing to Michigan. 

The Wolverines just aren’t going to get any better under Brady Hoke. Losers of four straight, being on the wrong end of a tight game at Rutgers – Penn State just so happened to be on the right side of its close call – and going an ugly 2-4 with no offense, and no hope, has meant that this is simply an exercise for the rest of the season. Michigan could still turn it around, and it could still come up with a big year with a winning run with victories on the road at Michigan State and Ohio State, but no … that’s not happening with the way this team is playing. However, Penn State is beatable, and a win would be a desperately –needed moment of fun in an otherwise dismal campaign. 

Why Penn State Might Win: Michigan still can’t find enough offense, and it doesn’t help to lose running back Derrick Green, who’s out for the season with a broken clavicle. Beyond the offense, and beyond the woes, the Wolverines are just sloppy. They’re -13 on the year in turnover margin, losing the battle in all six games. The offense is doing its part, but to be fair to that side of the ball, the defense hasn’t done a thing, coming up with just two takeaways on the season. Penn State isn’t great at winning the mistake battle, but it’s better, winning the margin in two of the last three games. 

Why Michigan Might Win: Teams are starting to figure out the Nittany Lion offense, at least Northwestern did. There’s no running game, so everyone has been dropping back and the passing lanes aren’t there. Penn State ran for 228 yards and five scores against UMass, but it was a mirage, getting stuffed by the Wildcats for 50 yards on 25 carries. Minnesota was able to power its way to 206 yards and a score on the ground, but for the most part, the Michigan defensive front seven has been excellent. 

Who To Watch Out For: Is it time to start to worry about Christian Hackenberg? He’s being acknowledged as the No. 1 overall pick whenever he decides to come out, but is he? His accuracy isn’t there, and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in any of his last three games, looking utterly lost at times against NU completing just 22-of-45 passes for 216 yards and a pick. Last year’s Michigan game wasn’t his breakout moment, but it was certainly his big stage game with 305 yards and three scores while leading the way to the win. 

What’s Going To Happen: Penn State is more beatable than you think, and Michigan isn’t quite as bad as you think. Even so, the Wolverine running game isn’t going anywhere, and Devin Gardner and the passing attack will have its problems. It’s going to be ugly, but the Nittany Lions will take it.

Prediction: Penn State 23 … Michigan 20 
Line: Michigan -1.5 o/u: 41
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge … 3