The NFL Draft is just days away, which is why there’s constant line movement on prop bets. There seems to be several adjustments every time there’s new information leaked about a prospect, or a reputable mock draft gets published.
That’s why I started my NFL Draft research two weeks ago and documented all the odds that were being dealt by the FanDuel Sportsbook. Today, I went through the latest odds to see the biggest movements between two weeks ago and now.
There will definitely be other moves as more information comes out, but here are some observations after dissecting the current numbers.
[RELATED: Stadium’s 2020 NFL Mock Draft]
The Lions Might End Up Keeping the No. 3 Pick
The Lions have made it no secret that they’re trying to trade the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL Draft. However, it looks like they’re having trouble finding a partner to trade up.
Two weeks ago, Tua Tagovailoa was the favorite to be the No. 3 overall pick at +160. He was followed by Jeff Okudah at +170. If Tagovailoa was drafted No. 3, it would’ve likely been by the Dolphins or Chargers after a trade with the Lions.
But now, Okudah is the favorite to be the No. 3 pick at +125, and Derrick Brown is the second favorite at +400. Seeing QBs Justin Herbert and Tagovailoa each at +450 indicates that the Lions are more likely to make the pick at No. 3 than trade it.
Obviously, this can change very quickly leading up to the draft — especially if Detroit lowers their asking price.
Justin Herbert Could Be Picked Ahead of Tua Tagovailoa
Speaking of quarterbacks, there was a lot of buzz last week regarding the health and durability of Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. His draft stock has gone down, and there’s currently some buzz that says Justin Herbert could be the second quarterback taken after Joe Burrow is selected first overall.
Two weeks ago, Tagovailoa was a -235 favorite in a matchup bet against Herbert (who was +180 on the other side). Now, Tagovailoa is a -158 favorite in that prop bet, and Herbert is +124. Expect the odds for this prop to fluctuate from now until Thursday.
The Giants Are Eying Offensive Linemen Over Isaiah Simmons
Many of the early April mock drafts had the Giants choosing Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons with the No. 4 pick. The betting market was more neutral to the idea, as the Giants were +100 to draft an offensive lineman and +125 to draft a linebacker (that would’ve been Simmons).
Currently, the Giants drafting an offensive lineman is a heavy favorite at -400 and linebacker is +500. The question now is which offensive lineman GM Dave Gettleman prefers…
OL Jedrick Wills Jr.’s Stock Is Rising
I highlighted in last week’s article that there was a “big four” when it came to offensive linemen in this draft, and it looks like Jedrick Wills Jr. is starting to separate himself as the leader in the pack just days before the NFL Draft.
Wills Jr. is currently priced at -175 to be the first pick by the Giants. Two weeks ago, under 8.5 for his draft position was at +116, and it’s drastically shifted to -235.
Wills Jr. has also become the odds-on favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted at -165. Tristan Wirfs is at +230, Andrew Thomas is at +600, and Mekhi Becton is at 10/1 after it became known his drug test at the combine was flagged.
Seven or More Offensive Linemen Will Be Picked in the First Round
The number set for total offensive linemen drafted in the first round is 6.5.
Two weeks ago, the over for that prop was -102, and the under was -124. Now the juice on the over has moved to -164, with under 6.5 at +128.
There’s definitely going to be the “big four” in Wills Jr., Wirfs, Thomas and Becton, but there’s also a strong second tier in the trenches, which is why it appears we could see a serious run on o-linemen in the first round.
If you are making your own mock draft, familiarize yourself with USC’s Austin Jackson, Houston’s Josh Jones, Boise State’s Ezra Cleveland, Michigan’s Cesar Ruiz and Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson.
There Will Be Six or Less Wide Receivers Chosen in the First Round
There’s been a lot of talk about the deep wide receiver class this year, and for good reason, but it’s starting to look like a few fringe first-round receivers might drop to the second round.
The number set for total wide receivers drafted in the first round is currently 6.5.
Two weeks ago, the over was at +126 and the under at -160. Now, the under has become an even bigger favorite and is currently -260 with the over up to +192.
Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs III and Justin Jefferson will all get picked in the first round. While players like Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk could be first-round picks, it might be wiser for teams to wait to snag a wide receiver from a deep pool of talent without using a first-round selection.
CB CJ Henderson Will Be Picked Higher Than Originally Expected
One of the biggest movers in the over/under draft position props over the last two weeks is Florida cornerback CJ Henderson.
Henderson’s placement total two weeks ago was 16.5, and now it’s been hammered down to 12.5.
It initially looked like there was going to be a big drop-off between Jeff Okudah and the next cornerback taken, but Henderson looks like he will narrow that gap.
A Running Back Might Not Be Drafted in the First Round
Two weeks ago, the under for 0.5 running backs selected in the first round was priced at +180. Now the under for 0.5 is +150. Not the biggest move, but I wouldn’t be surprised if those odds continue to lower, implying that no running backs will be selected in the first round.
Players like D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could all have an immediate impact wherever they land, but NFL teams know they don’t have to use a first-round pick on a running back in order to get a productive player at that position.